EURUSD

Kind of a strange week so far. Shown below is the 4 hour EURUSD chart. The blue line is the approximate weekly open line. Price went up, then down below the weekly line, messed around for a bit, then shot up about the weekly line again. The latest candle is bearish, and it also looks like an inside bar, possibly meaning the price will drop again. To where, I have no idea. 

In Monday's post I had drawn a nice little ascending channel, thinking price would go up. Well, it did, but not before breaking through my channel. The nerve!

Luckily, I am basing my trades only on consolidation patterns, and was able to find one. Two pending orders became market, one BUY trade which broke even, and a SELL trade which gave up $25.30 in profit. There's been no other clear consolidation patterns since then, although I also have been a bit dismayed at price action and haven't really looked.

Where to from here? Shown below is a 60 minute EURUSD chart with 100 & 200 period simple moving average lines plotted. 

The price roared up last night and stalled at the 200 SMA. If it can get through this, it should continue up quite strongly. Price already has some momentum, so this could happen. We'll watch other currency pairs tonight for clues, as sometimes when other pairs start moving strongly, EURUSD will follow. 

Below is a daily EURUSD chart with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo plotted:

 Notice the price stalled just before entering the cloud and shot up? However, it wasn't able to penetrate the red line, and there's even a possible bearish trend line we could draw from 29th February. But we'll wait and see if price can penetrate this red line as well.

Lastly, a weekly EURUSD chart with a bearish trendline:

Indicating price will continue to fall. 

Of course, it's really anyone's guess, and there's loads of other technical information I haven't presented as it just confuses the picture. 

I'll wait for more consolidation patterns to form before placing anymore trades, and until then, enjoy spending my demo $25.