(Weekly EURUSD chart showing last weeks candle sitting nearly inside the range of the previous weeks)
Price goes down, price goes up, down, messes around, then shoots up on Friday but only slightly exceeds the high posted earlier in the week. Not a good week for most of my automated systems, and not too great for manual trading either.
(4 hour EURUSD with blue line indicating previous weeks closing price. The vertical dotted lines separate weeks.)
I noticed the price did seem to be continuing downwards, at least until Friday, and I had several attempts at drawing trend lines, all miserable, before finally getting this:
(60 minute EURUSD chart with trend line in orange. Blue line is the 1.30 level)
On this next chart with simple moving averages plotted, we can see that price hasn't even reached the 100 SMA on the daily again.
(Daily EURUSD chart with 100 & 200 period simple moving average)
(Daily EURUSD chart with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo)
So once again, it's really anyone's guess, but price does seem to be trending downwards. However, it has to penetrate the stubborn 1.30 level to keep moving downwards. Additionally, several other currency pairs also traded higher on Friday (AUDUSD and GBPUSD), so we'll keep an eye on them for hints as to what EURUSD price action may do.
As far as my breakout system that I've been trading manually on a demo account goes, it was rather shameful last week. 4 trades, 2 break evens, and 2 losses, totaling $80.60. I did have some success with other currencies pairs so my total loss for this account was only $30, but my EURUSD trades have been pretty horrible.
See from the chart below where Fridays trades went wrong. I was faked out in a sell, then my BUY trade broke even. Pretty nasty.
(30 min EURUSD chart. Yellow box represents consolidation. Pending orders were places at the top and bottom of the small blue box. Dotted lines separate days).
Quite often lately I've found myself thinking I should ditch the Euro. We'll see how it goes next week.
