No results this last week due to illness.
Jun 25, 2012
Jun 20, 2012
EURUSD - 2012-06-20
Despite the never ending Euro-zone problems, you'll notice the EURUSD has been in an up trend since the end of May.
(4 hour EURUSD chart)
Fibonacci lines drawn from the down trend which started at the beginning of May to the end reveal possible stopping points for this trend. Having already blown through 38.2, other possible targets are 1.279 and 1.29.
One thing to watch, however, is what appears to be a double top on the 4 hour chart, with long wicks and a bearish reading on the RSI indicator, indicating slowing momentum and possible reversal.
( 4 hour EURUSD chart with RSI)
We'd be looking to buy if price continued upwards from 1.275, or sell if it breaches the trend line at approximate 1.26.
Robot Results 2012-06-11 to 2012-06-16
The wonderful spread sheet shows the latest results.
Inside Bar
Down $40 this last week, for two negative results in a row. This bot usually performs quite well.
Incidentally, I back tested this robot again for fun, and this time, I was unable to get positive results. This is very strange, considering the back test before that yielded very positive results and was the reason for the current settings of these robots. I have no idea what to think about this, other than there is yet another problem with MetaTrader 4's back tester.
I also back tested a few variations of this design and none yielded positive results. It's very confusing! The demo results from the last three months have been very encouraging.
Pending Reversal Candle
$508 profit last week. This robot is inconsistent, but I have noticed it seems to perform better in uncertain market conditions, and when the Inside Bar robot fails, this one often ends the week positive.
Daily Close Break Out
Lost another $56 the week before last, and balance wasn't improving much over the $3,000 mark, so I deleted the account, created a new one, and re-worked the code out of desperation. It ended the week $139 up, which was quite impressive. This current week is not showing very good signs though, so despite the code changes, I still think this idea is dead. I'm itching to delete this robot.
Weekly Close + ATR
The weekly breakout robots started the week well, but suffered a series of losses. This one ended up $322. These robots are also inconsistent, but when there is a big breakout they tend to do extremely well.
I ran them through the back tester again, and yielded mostly positive results still, so even if there is a problem with the back tester, this along with demo results are encouraging.
Weekly Break Out 2
Despite a good start to the week, there were whip saws ahoy and we close down $500. Despite using half the lot size of the other weekly breakout robot, the ending balances are approximately the same.
It's also interesting to see how the variations between these robots play out with regards to weekly performance. I haven't formulated any ideas for tweaks between these two robots yet, but will keep an eye on them.
Open Close H4 Bot
Inside Bar
Down $40 this last week, for two negative results in a row. This bot usually performs quite well.
Incidentally, I back tested this robot again for fun, and this time, I was unable to get positive results. This is very strange, considering the back test before that yielded very positive results and was the reason for the current settings of these robots. I have no idea what to think about this, other than there is yet another problem with MetaTrader 4's back tester.
I also back tested a few variations of this design and none yielded positive results. It's very confusing! The demo results from the last three months have been very encouraging.
$508 profit last week. This robot is inconsistent, but I have noticed it seems to perform better in uncertain market conditions, and when the Inside Bar robot fails, this one often ends the week positive.
Daily Close Break Out
Lost another $56 the week before last, and balance wasn't improving much over the $3,000 mark, so I deleted the account, created a new one, and re-worked the code out of desperation. It ended the week $139 up, which was quite impressive. This current week is not showing very good signs though, so despite the code changes, I still think this idea is dead. I'm itching to delete this robot.
Weekly Close + ATR
The weekly breakout robots started the week well, but suffered a series of losses. This one ended up $322. These robots are also inconsistent, but when there is a big breakout they tend to do extremely well.
I ran them through the back tester again, and yielded mostly positive results still, so even if there is a problem with the back tester, this along with demo results are encouraging.
Weekly Break Out 2
Despite a good start to the week, there were whip saws ahoy and we close down $500. Despite using half the lot size of the other weekly breakout robot, the ending balances are approximately the same.
It's also interesting to see how the variations between these robots play out with regards to weekly performance. I haven't formulated any ideas for tweaks between these two robots yet, but will keep an eye on them.
Open Close H4 Bot
Third weekly loss in a row. This robot is just sad, and the over-brought/over-sold filter added a few weeks ago doesn't seem to be doing it any favors. I very tempted to kill this robot off also.
Jun 9, 2012
Robot Results 2012-06-04 to 2012-06-09
Don't forget the spread sheet with the results!
Inside Bar
Started the week off well, then got whipsawed by the AUD which hurt, bad. Down $448.
Pending Reversal Candle
One order, one loss, down $197.
Daily Close Break Out
Down $56 in two orders. I increased the buffer size on this bot and now it barely trades. I'm pretty sure this is a dead idea. I've been pondering ways to fix it or things to adjust to make it work better, but I didn't come up with anything.
May replace this robot with another soon, but for the moment while I'm feeling lazy I'll leave it running.
Weekly Close + ATR
Another robot which started off well, then suffered big losses later in the week. Luckily the wins off-set the losers by $1.
It's interesting to see the difference between this robot and it's older relative, the Weekly Break Out 2 robot. They seem to have weeks where one works better than the other, then other weeks where they swap roles. I'm sure the stop losses and tailing stop settings have a lot to do with things, but I'm not sure if it's the settings themselves or just market action which is deciding which works and which doesn't.
Weekly Break Out 2
A few moderately large wins, and a few losers limited by tight stop loss settings. Profit of $547, despite using half the leverage of the Weekly Close + ATR robot. If only it would behave this well every week.
It's interesting how the usual best performing robot, Inside Bar, has failed miserably this week, but Weekly Break Out has been having some good runs lately.
I was leaning towards developing only the Inside Bar robot further, but with a few more results like this by the weekly breakout robots, and I'll reconsider.
Open-Close H4 Bot
Inside Bar
Started the week off well, then got whipsawed by the AUD which hurt, bad. Down $448.
Pending Reversal Candle
One order, one loss, down $197.
Daily Close Break Out
Down $56 in two orders. I increased the buffer size on this bot and now it barely trades. I'm pretty sure this is a dead idea. I've been pondering ways to fix it or things to adjust to make it work better, but I didn't come up with anything.
May replace this robot with another soon, but for the moment while I'm feeling lazy I'll leave it running.
Weekly Close + ATR
Another robot which started off well, then suffered big losses later in the week. Luckily the wins off-set the losers by $1.
It's interesting to see the difference between this robot and it's older relative, the Weekly Break Out 2 robot. They seem to have weeks where one works better than the other, then other weeks where they swap roles. I'm sure the stop losses and tailing stop settings have a lot to do with things, but I'm not sure if it's the settings themselves or just market action which is deciding which works and which doesn't.
Weekly Break Out 2
A few moderately large wins, and a few losers limited by tight stop loss settings. Profit of $547, despite using half the leverage of the Weekly Close + ATR robot. If only it would behave this well every week.
It's interesting how the usual best performing robot, Inside Bar, has failed miserably this week, but Weekly Break Out has been having some good runs lately.
I was leaning towards developing only the Inside Bar robot further, but with a few more results like this by the weekly breakout robots, and I'll reconsider.
Open-Close H4 Bot
This poor old robot loses another $130 this week. It doesn't seem to do what it was designed to do any more, which is follow strong trends. I adjusted the over brought/over sold filter to make it less sensitive, but this robot still didn't trade much.
Am currently thinking of ways to improve it, to return some of it's strong trend winning ability. There was a period of time when this robot performed extremely well, but that was a while ago, and with the exception of another two week period, performance has been miserable. It's fascinating that the market can make a robot a winner for just a period of time.
EURUSD - 2012-06-09
Price was in a descending channel the entire month of May, and June 1st saw it start rising and break out the channel.
(4 hour EURUSD chart with channels)
It has almost formed a nice bullish channel, but broke out of that, too. So now the question is, will price keep rising in a retracement move of the recent bearish price action, or fall further?
(4 hour EURUSD chart with high/low 100 period moving averages)
Looking at the 100 period moving averages, we can see price has bounced off these lines, so we'll keep an eye on these instead of relying on the channels for the moment.
Price will either keep bouncing around these moving averages for a while, or decide on a direction and accelerate.
Most other USD currency pairs have similar price action right now. EURGBP (not shown) is interesting as it's showing slowing momentum and is forming a wedge shape, which could mean all action is in USD.
A very general guide to placing trades this next week is to sell above/below the recent swings, so buy above 1.262, sell below 1.243.
Jun 5, 2012
EURUSD - 2012-06-04
A little bit of action last night in EURUSD, almost reaching the top of the bearish channel drawn yesterday.
(1 hour EURUSD chart)
Price slowly but steadily increased yesterday, following the orange trend line, until it broke above the thick orange resistance line. The thin orange line shows a possible new resistance.
(4 hour EURUSD chart)
The chart above has 100 period moving averages plotted, set to the high and low price of each candle. I've been using this system on the 4 hour chart to judge trend strength, and as you can see, last nights price action is the closest price has been to these averages in more than 4 weeks.
A break above could be taken as a short term buy signal, with a failure to do so a sign to sell.
Jun 4, 2012
Robot Results - 2012-05-28 to 2012-06-02
Thought I'd create a Google Spreadsheet for the weekly robot results, so it's easier to see their history.
Robot Results
The individual robots have their own tab at the bottom of the spread sheet which you have to click on to see their results.
Had a fight with the sharing settings on my photo service, but eventually would like to add the screen shots directly in the spread sheet.
Inside Bar
Some missed opportunities in a bearish trend, but picks up two trades, one winner, one loser, both in EURUSD, for $59 profit.
Pending Reversal Candle
Started the week strong, but a failed AUDUSD trade wiped out any profit and this robot ends $417 down.
Daily Close Break Out
Almost given up on this robot. Decided to keep it running after it returned a profit last week. Increased the buffer sizes, but it loses another $260 this week. Am tempted to massage the settings a little more, but pretty much think it's design is not going to work. Suspecting that daily closing prices are not enough to create a profitable bot.
Weekly Close + ATR
Still have hope for this robot, but this week loses $37. Not a big loss, but the entries are plain to see and there weren't too many whip saws - it should have done better.
Weekly Break Out 2
Smaller stop losses and another great GBPJPY trade puts this robot up $748. If only it performed this week every week!
Open Close H4 Bot
Our oldest robot, again fails to capture the trend properly, and ends up $169 down. Am almost thinking to redesign this robot - it should still fail, as most of my trend following robots have, but if it can capture some trends when they exist, which is all I really need it to do, then it would provide useful information about trends, which was the intent of leaving this robot running all along.
Robot Results
The individual robots have their own tab at the bottom of the spread sheet which you have to click on to see their results.
Had a fight with the sharing settings on my photo service, but eventually would like to add the screen shots directly in the spread sheet.
Inside Bar
Some missed opportunities in a bearish trend, but picks up two trades, one winner, one loser, both in EURUSD, for $59 profit.
Pending Reversal Candle
Started the week strong, but a failed AUDUSD trade wiped out any profit and this robot ends $417 down.
Daily Close Break Out
Almost given up on this robot. Decided to keep it running after it returned a profit last week. Increased the buffer sizes, but it loses another $260 this week. Am tempted to massage the settings a little more, but pretty much think it's design is not going to work. Suspecting that daily closing prices are not enough to create a profitable bot.
Weekly Close + ATR
Still have hope for this robot, but this week loses $37. Not a big loss, but the entries are plain to see and there weren't too many whip saws - it should have done better.
Weekly Break Out 2
Smaller stop losses and another great GBPJPY trade puts this robot up $748. If only it performed this week every week!
Open Close H4 Bot
Our oldest robot, again fails to capture the trend properly, and ends up $169 down. Am almost thinking to redesign this robot - it should still fail, as most of my trend following robots have, but if it can capture some trends when they exist, which is all I really need it to do, then it would provide useful information about trends, which was the intent of leaving this robot running all along.
EURUSD - 2012-04-06
Despite some bullish action last Friday, price action remains firmly bearish over all. All technical indicators show extreme bearish conditions. Price hasn't gone anywhere near it's 100 period moving average for over a month now.
(4 hour EURUSD chart)
The best we can draw at the moment is this bearish channel on the 4 hour chart, which shows that despite Fridays fireworks with the US employment data, price is still within the channel, and with news from Europe not improving, we'd expect to see it keep dropping, possibly as far as 1.18.
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