Not much happened with the EURUSD last night. Thursday saw a drop to and test of 1.3000, which was rejected and the price rallied to 60 min 100 simple moving average.
Last night the price broke through the 60 minute upper 100 simple moving average line (upper red line), but it failed to break through the 60 minute 200 simple moving average (blue line). Also at about that 1.31845 mark was daily pivot R1 resistance and last weeks mid point. EURUSD failed to reach last weeks high, managed to move slightly lower, but closed a little higher.
Here is the EURUSD daily chart:
The price briefly followed the far bearish right trend-line (blue) and now rests slightly above it.
The blue box represents where I think the prices have consolidated. Apart from a brief poke above last week, the prices appear to be returning to this zone.
Looking at some other currency pairs to try to get a clearer picture of where the EURUSD might be heading, we can see that there hasn't been much action there, either, with the exception of GBPUSD and USDJPY.
The weekly charts for USDCAD and AUDUSD show an inside candle has formed:
The GBPUSD closed higher than last week, but failed to reach last weeks high. It did make new lows, however. The USDJPY rallied.
What other information do we have? EURGBP daily chart (not shown) suggests consolidation since January. USDCAD has tried several times to break through 0.99330, failed, and also appears to be consolidating.
So much technical information, my head hurts!
My best guess is to wait until EURUSD breaches 1.3230 or 1.3000 in a meaningful way.
Even the experts aren't in agreement with what the EURUSD is doing, so that makes me feel a little better about my indecision.
Fan Yang from FX Times thinks it might go up (with some caveats):
I particularly agree with his comments "The bounce from 1.2974 was very sharp in the 2/16 US session, and has followed through in the Asian and European session." But he points out resistance factors too.
And lastly, Joel Kruger from DailyFX thinks more consolidation and choppy trading is ahead, which is also the analysis I agree with.
Like a yacht stuck with no breeze, we sit and wait direction.
