While I'm still a long way from having any real success in Forex, there have been some signs of optimism. This combined with the fact that I'm enjoying myself immensely and one day may even be able to make a profit with a live account, keeps me going.
So, optimism.
I'm presenting only EURUSD trades and analysis here, but I do trade other currency pairs (on demo accounts), and am practicing variations on my break-out strategy as well.
While I was trying to focus my attention mainly on EURUSD, several other pairs have behaved slightly better lately and helped reduce my (demo) EURUSD losses.
Additionally, I'm still testing several robots. I expect most of them to fail and I doubt any that are successful will remain so. I have a theory that the Forex market is like a wild beast, and any time you think you have it cornered, it will lash out and do something unpredictable to shake you off. If you survive, you can merely watch and wait, and hope for an opportunity to corner it again (for a short time).
But here's some sample results from my (demo) successes:
Here's a new robot I coded based loosely on a trading strategy I read about in a Forex Factory forum:
One trade, but $160 profit. This robot looks for price failures and attempts to place pending trades underneath price action once it finds it. Not really a new idea, and one that is easy enough to trade manually.
The code is not available for this robot. Once it fails, then I'll offer it for download ;)
This robot performed poorly in back-tests, but I thought I'd try it on a demo account anyway.
Here are the results from another strategy found at Forex Factory, in it's second week of testing.
$941 profit! Not too shabby. Making an approximate 20% return per week would be heavenly.
This strategy includes an EA. It's active on my chart, and it placed a few trades with 0.01 lot size, but I didn't pay much attention to them. Most of the profit comes from trades I placed manually. The strategy is very simple. The EA draws a box a few pips above and below the first few 4 hr bars after the weekly open. You should then place pending trades above and below this box.
I had to monitor the trades a little. If I hadn't, the SELL trades would have been stopped out for a loss.
The BUY trade which gave most of the profit was nearly stopped out also. If this had been a live account, I doubt I would have been brave enough to leave it alone once it reached -$600 territory, and probably would have closed it manually for a loss. Thus I would have missed out on the profit it made.
You may also note I was relying heavily on leverage in order to generate the profit - not something I'd do with a live account, but lots of fun to play with on demo.
Lastly, the back-test results from my newest robot:
A nice equity curve, and $2547 profit after a year (25% return!). Lot size started at 0.1. Had it been set to 1, the profit could possibly have been $25,000!
Sadly, back-testing is unreliable, so this robot will be forward tested for a few months to see how it performs.
The code for this is also not available ;) I will say, however, that's it's also based upon a break-out strategy.
