Feb 28, 2012

EURUSD

Last night saw the EURUSD break out of a small consolidation pattern and move lower. On my demo break-out strategy trading account, trades were placed earlier in the day, the SELL-STOP was activated and made $33.40. 


The consolidation pattern is marked in blue on the EURUSD 4 hour chart above. It's not very clear on this chart, so disregard.

What I do see on this 4 hour chart is another doji has just formed. One formed just before Friday closing last week, and the EURUSD dropped.

The daily chart (not shown) shows the EURUSD still a little outside the top Bollinger Band, and also inside candles have formed on EURUSD and several other currency pairs (not shown).

From these two pieces of technical information, I'd be expecting EURUSD to drop a little further tonight. Which of course means it will go up!

DailyFX is forecasting EURUSD in an uptrend for the moment, and we do still have room to reach the Fibonacci level 1.36270.

There are no nice consolidation patterns available for placement of break-out trades, but I do still have a BUY-STOP at 1.34905 active from the consolidation yesterday. EURUSD would have to go past this level to move higher anyway.

I feel like placing a SELL-STOP at 1.33525, which is a little under the current weekly low. However, I have no system to justify this order, and it doesn't fit with my break-out strategy, so I'll wait.